Will regions policy be blown off course by the credit crunch?
Chris Leslie, Director, New Local Government Network
Regeneration and Renewal
When the familiar voice of the BBC’s Robert Peston subsides and the shrill global economic headlines are eventually replaced by the domestic news agenda, what story will we hear? There can be little doubt that a significant economic downturn is on the cards and that up and down the country, businesses and households will feel a real impact. This impact is not likely to occur evenly. The fortunately wealthy will have sufficient capability to weather the storm – even if there will be plenty of burnt fingers. But the impact on employment, personal debt and bankruptcy, negative equity and home repossessions will fall unevenly across the population, and especially hard in the English regions furthest from the capital.
The decision-making processes that we have in the UK are highly centralised, traditionally aggregating national data and turning out policy responses for the ‘average’ household. The trouble is, levels of disparity between well-off and disadvantaged areas are stubbornly wide and by some measures widening further. The Government’s approach to sub-national decision-making is therefore critical in how well or poorly it is able to respond to the complex and varied nature of England’s economies. What might be the right policy response to London’s housing problems may not fit in the north of England.
The Government’s sub national review of economic development and regeneration published in the summer of 2007 was a definitive reassertion of regional policy, adapted to take account of the ‘no’ vote in the north east referendum three years earlier. The logic was sound; in the absence of elected assemblies, English regions were to have a more unified executive lead through enhanced Regional Development Agencies, whose integrated strategies would be held partly to account by local council leaders and new Regional Select Committees in the Commons. The consultation process on the detail of precisely how this alternative regional approach might work in practice finished this summer and the Government’s final response is due imminently. Changes in Ministerial teams – particularly at BERR – may have a significant impact on how any structural or legislative changes might flow. Some have suggested that these sub national rewiring issues are a second order concern and should be paused during the ongoing credit crunch chaos. However these timing issues pan out, it is clear that, for England outside London, there is a vast amount of unfinished constitutional business, with a need for clearer decision-making and stronger leadership. Whereas Scotland, Wales and London have all obtained strong decision-taking capabilities and forums in which major issues can be debated, the rest of England still lags behind. This is perhaps best illustrated by the debate in Greater London about the competing options for a new airport runway, perhaps at Heathrow, perhaps in the Thames Estuary. The north of England has an equal case for such a discussion to be occurring but no forum and no single set of coalescing decision-makers to determine such a question. Resolving sub-national governance may sound highly academic but these are fundamental prerequisites for strong economic regeneration involving public investment and public services.
The swirling consequences of the credit freeze and commodity inflation will take their toll. Welfare policy in regions of acute worklessness may need an entirely fresh rethink, predicated as they are on assumptions of a perpetually available pool of job vacancies. In regions where there are fewer opportunities for growth, regeneration has depended on a carefully balanced combination of retail, office and housing development – an equation that may no longer stack up in a credit crunch. The sub national review has also sought to revive an economic development role for local authorities. Councils will certainly have to roll their sleeves up and soon – and the RDAs will also have to continue picking up the pieces in some sectors, as they are already trying with regional financial services such as Halifax and Bradford & Bingley. Rather than being confined to ‘assessing’ economic conditions or reacting with ambulance functions when disaster strikes, how better could it be if regional agencies and councils could play a stronger proactive role? We desperately need leadership to build sub-national resilience into our economic fabric, creating sturdier and more robust underpinnings for core industrial specialisations that can withstand international turbulence. If businesses had active government in close proximity, able to help when capital or credit dries up at the banks, there might be a chance to preserve most of the creative capacity built during the good times. When the global and nationwide policy issues settle, a critical test will be the effectiveness with which the state can intervene if necessary with tailored responses to local circumstance.
There are some positive signs of hope on the horizon. Slowly and with little fanfare, clusters of local authorities – not only in city regions but in other urban-rural alliances too – have been clubbing together to form ‘multi area agreements’, negotiating for key delegated powers and financial freedoms from Government during 2008. With seven MAAs agreed so far, these self-generated organic sub-regions have driven their own agenda on skills, transport and investment.
Though the imperative of decentralised decision-making appears blindingly obvious, national politicians have a tendency to forget that they cannot cope with the nuanced operational issues which arise in all the different parts of a country as complex as England. These economic times should not deter the drive for devolution; they demand an even greater attention to jobs and housing and enterprise right down to the local level.
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“In the circumstances it is quite understandable and reasonable for the transport sector to fundamentally question the value the DfT actually provides, apart from passporting public funding”

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