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May 13, 2008


On May 2nd I woke up with a hangover, despite the fact that I hadn’t been drinking the night before. My headache was caused by the thought of Boris Johnson running the capital city and the economic powerhouse of the UK. I’m not trying to make a political point; I’m sure that Steve Norris would have made a very effective Mayor given his past experience in business and politics. But Boris? A man who couldn’t hold down a job in the Shadow Cabinet and whom his close friends caustically describe as a “superb delegator”?

The seeds of doubt over Johnson’s competence were sewn during his election campaign. An exasperated Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight could not get him to answer a straight question on spending commitments. Boris seemed flustered when asked for policy specifics. Is this really a man who can deliver multi-billion pound projects such as Crossrail and the Olympics?

Well, perhaps. Johnson will retain much of the executive management at the London Authority such as Tim O’Toole at the London Underground and Peter Hendy at Transport for London, both of whom will be crucial in renegotiating the collapsed agreement with MetroNet. Conservative Central Office will also surround him with experienced businessmen such as Bob Diamond of Barclays Capital.

The 2012 Olympics remain a major part of London’s future regeneration and Johnson’s ability to manage an already over-running budget will be crucial to his chances of re-election, given that the next election will fall a few months before the Games begin. Much control will remain with central Government and Olympics Minister but Johnson might attempt to claw back some of the earmarked spending from London council tax payers and would certainly be hostile to any increase.

On housing, having rejected Ken Livingstone’s approach of obliging boroughs to build an increased number of affordable housing, the Mayor will take a more conciliatory approach, working with councils to achieve a target suitable for each party. Will this however put the Mayor in conflict with Conservative councils in the outer London boroughs, who have hitherto been critical of his Livingstone’s plans to increase the city’s housing stock? Don’t expect too much of a fight though as the Mayor has already pledged not to allow any new buildings on green-belt land.

Solving London’s creaking transport infrastructure was a central part of Johnson’s campaign and he will be under immense pressure to deliver the £16bn Crossrail scheme. In my opinion Livingstone didn’t receive enough credit during the election for finally buttressing the Government into agreeing the scheme and Boris will have to show that he possesses Ken’s skills of negotiation with central Government.

Finally, one important aspect of his Mayoralty will be how Boris works with the London Development Agency, one of the key drivers of regeneration and social cohesion in the Capital. During the election campaign, Johnson was highly critical of its ongoing scandals and the official Conservative Party policy is to abolish the RDAs. Johnson could very well reduce its budget should he be looking for savings to be made from the Mayoral budget.

So what will he have to achieve to make his mark on London? I hope Boris reprises some of the energy and enthusiasm from Livingstone’s first term, introducing new and radical policies and sometimes having to stand up for London against central Government interests. Many underestimated his ability to win an election and now the man they called the clown could surprise us all by showing he is able to govern.